Yes...but!

May 26 2008

Home > Columns >Yes...But! Year 8-29

A few weeks ago my wife and I were in New Mexico’s Capital, Santa Fe, for Grand-Parents day at a private school. Old folks from all over the USA had gathered there to admire the accomplishments of their beautiful grand-children. Of course I talked to these people, asking pointed questions and discovering that there is little awareness of the real situation in their native land.

That same week President Bush had visited Saudi Arabia, begging them to increase its oil production, the second time in 4 months, and again he failed. Imagine a person with debts all over the place and unable to pay even the interest, going to the bank and asking for more money. The lending officer would tell this spend thrift to curtail expenses, live within in his means and economize wherever possible. What Bush should have done, when he recognized that the USA was addicted to oil, was to reduce the speed limit to 55 miles per hour, add an extra tax to the billions of gallons of fuel American waste each day, and impose a carbon tax so that less gasoline is sold, less pollution is caused, less miles are driven and so the import bill of the USA is cut. The extra tax collected to be used, of course, to help poor people cope.

Today the USA imports 13 million barrels of oil each day. Multiply that by $130, and the trade deficit on gasoline alone is more than $1.7 billion each day, or $50 billion per month. No wonder the US dollar is in a free fall.

Since Bush won’t do anything, what is the next president to do? Talking to Americans in Santa Fe and looking at the bumper stickers there, "Obama for 08" is the choice. He is seen as America’s savior. “Wait for January” I was told, “then everything will change.”

Jay Leno hit it on the nose when he said last week: "Yesterday, an estimated 75,000 people (in Portland) attended a Barack Obama rally on the banks of the Willamette River. And if you believe the media, listen to this. After the rally, Barack Obama fed them all with five loaves of bread and two fish."

Yes, Obama is seen as the New Messiah, the only shouts missing are “Obama, Hosannah”.

Barack’s refrain is “Hope you can believe in”. Wow, that sounds religious. The Bible says something about hope when defining faith. Hebrew 11:1: “Now faith is being sure of what we hope for, and certain of what we do not see.”

No hope without faith. No faith without hope. How well founded is the ‘hope’ on which Barack Obama has built his campaign? Will things really be different?

Take Iraq. He says that he’ll pull out of Iraq right away. Reality tells me that America is nothing without oil. Iraq has oil, plenty of it. America cannot possibly use less oil, because its subdivision-saturated state cannot accommodate mass transit. Abandoning these exurban settlements is just as unlikely as quitting Iraq, because a sudden withdrawal would bring on a Sunni-Shiite-Kurdish struggle, would see Iran, Turkey and Israel rushing in as well: a truly explosive mess. Already Israel, Turkey and Syria are discussing now what to do when Obama wins and leaves Iraq.

Then there is America’s colossal debt, getting worse every day thanks to Peak Oil. Last week USA TODAY reported that, when obligations of state and local governments are added, the total USA debt rises to $61.7 trillion, or $531,472 per household. Add personal obligations, such as mortgages, and the figure is $650,000. Ouch! Essentially the USA is broke, because the nation owes trillions to foreigners as well. The usual answer of governments to deal with debt is: inflate. That’s exactly what’s happening.

Then there is the Real Estate Crash, no way yet over: perhaps another 10-15 percent drop to go, drowning many more millions of homeowners in a sea of debt, exacerbated by ever-higher gasoline prices. During the week I spent in New Mexico, the price per gallon increased by 10 cents, with another 20 cents added since, with no end in sight.

The Hurricane season is coming. Suppose that one hits Louisiana again, where a good portion of America’s domestic fuel originates. Then $200 per barrel oil is a certainty. Also Global Warming has especially the America’s south in its focus. Tornadoes are the daily regular feature, costing scores of lives and dozens of homes each week. Perhaps HOPE is the only thing Americans have left. Once that is dashed, who knows if another civil war looms: the poor versus the rich.

The new president inherits an impossible situation. The result will be an electorate that will be quickly disillusioned: the shouts of “Hosanna Obama” will turn to the familiar “Crucify him.” Obamamania will soon become Barack-bashing.

Pity anybody who becomes the next American president